Backgammon Online

21-Sep-2010
13:41 PST

Two of my opponents and I just had fifnteen consecutive rolls of which there were:

7/15 rolls were 6-6's
5/15 rolls were 6-5's
14/15 rolls were 6-something

The dice rolls were as follows:

Against Rigoberto1003:
(http://zooescape.com/backgammon.pl?v=200&gid=268797)
(Start at move21)

6-5
4-3
6-6
6-6
6-6

Immediately followed by my game against Chriss68:
(http://zooescape.com/backgammon.pl?v=200&gid=268835)
(Start at move 14)

6-2
6-3
6-5
6-4
6-6
6-3
6-6
6-5
6-5
6-6

That means in fifteen consecutive rolls, twelve were either 6-6 or 6-5!

Amazing!

29-Sep-2010
16:44 PST

great luck was there for sure !

22-Oct-2010
13:51 PST

The probability of such consecutive rolls seems to me so incredibly low that it only comforts me in thinking that there is something very suspicious about the way rolls are generated  

23-Oct-2010
04:03 PST

In this game:
http://zooescape.com/backgammon.pl?v=0&gid=290165&p1=saurus&p2=little_pinkas
Starting at move 17, I rolled:
4-4
5-5
2-2
5-5
2-2
6-6
in six consecutive rolls!

22-Nov-2010
16:23 PST

I believe that if a sample of data is large enough you will see some pretty strange things! No I am not a expert on probability but I have enjoy numerous conversation with people who are! I do have a fascination with patterns and I have study lottery systems as well. To put some thoughts to rest I will ask an answer a strange question myself I have played chess for 40 years, I have had opportunity to play the same identical tournament game twice in the same tournament. I have played backgammon for 20 years, OTB and I recalled losing a race, for $$ where my opponent had to roll six consecutive doubles in-order to beat me in a race and they in fact did! Imagine he possibility of these particular occurrence's happening LOL!!

23-Nov-2010
11:56 PST

yes those rolls are strange and indicate a dice program that repeats either doubles or a pattern. I played a few games whereby I rolled repeat rolls for too often for random probabilities. In one sequence I rolled 2-2 2-2 2-3 2-2 and was on the bar with the opponent having only the 2-6 covered when those rolls started. With that consecutive sequence the probability is 1\36 X 1\36 X 2\36 X 1\36 = 2 out of 1819584 times.

23-Nov-2010
13:54 PST

That's flawed logic. Also I think your calculator's slightly faulty. 1/36 x 1/36 x 2/36 x 1/36 is 2 in 1679616 or 1 in 839808.

The probability of rolling any given sequence of 4 rolls is also 1 in 839808. If you look at the overall dice statistics, there is no suggestion that doubles are rolled unduly often. If your argument is that doubles are arriving in clusters more often than they should be, then your example is by no means proof of this. The very sequence of rolls that you quoted should, in probability, have occurred at least a handful of times in the short history of this website already, if my logic's correct.

24-Nov-2010
14:06 PST

Many feel that the dice program is not random but I've had the type of sequences in dice rolls you've mentioned using the old fashioned board and cup games.

Maybe I've just got bad luck LOL

26-Nov-2010
00:53 PST

There is a saying in football, that "luck" balances out over the season. I am sure for every instance where a run of dice have meant we lost a game that we should have won, there are also instances where we have all made miraculous comebacks.

So, rather than looking for conspiracy theorys in the dice programme, just play the game for fun, as I am sure you are going to get some lucky rolls soon..

27-Nov-2010
08:19 PST

Just lost three games to the same person. they rolled 6-6 to Win the first race --only one roll so that`s normal, then rolled 6-6 and 5-5 to win a game they were well behind. the third was the worst. I had 6 men left rolled 3-2 to leave a shot--they rolled 3-2 to hit. With no board I got in and they hit a 3 again to save the gammon. Then I got in and they were 4 away and i rolled 2-2. I had to leave a shot anyway so hit the men and took two off leaving a 3 or 1-2 to hit and save the backgammon. they hit. Next I stay off a few rolls then get in and i have two men on 2, one on 1 and one on 12 pt and they have 12 men left. They roll 4-4 get 4 off I roll 4-2 now have 4 men in my board. They roll 3-3 get 4 off I get two off and have 2 Left and they roll 3-3 for three straight doubles. Amazing game. three last chance hits and then 3 doubles their last three rolls to win.